Nigeria’s GDP rose by 1.87% in Q1 – NBS

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 1.87 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2020.

The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed this in its ‘Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product’ report for the first quarter of 2020 on Monday.

This performance was recorded against the backdrop of significant global disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 public health crisis, a sharp fall in oil prices and restricted international trade.

In the second quarter of 2019, Nigeria’s real GDP at basic prices grew by 2.12 per cent on a year-on-year basis. Growth accelerated further in the third and fourth quarters by 2.28 per cent and 2.55 per cent respectively.

The steady increase in quarterly growth resulted in an annual growth rate of 2.27 per cent for 2019, compared to 1.91 per cent in 2018 on a year-on-year basis.

Compared to the second quarter of 2018, the performance in 2019 indicated an increase of 0.61per cent while the third and fourth quarters were 0.47 per cent and 0.17 per cent higher respectively than the corresponding quarters of 2018.

For the quarter-on-quarter assessment, real GDP growth was –14.27 per cent compared to 5.59 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N35.65tn in nominal terms.

This performance was higher when compared to the first quarter of 2019 which recorded N31.82tn, with a nominal growth rate of 12.01 per cent year on year.

Relative to the first quarter of 2019, the nominal growth rate was higher by 0.11 per cent but lower than the preceding quarter by –0.32 per cent.

During the first quarter of 2020, an average daily oil production of 2.07 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded.

The production level was higher than the 1.99mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by 0.08mbpd and the fourth quarter of 2019 by 0.06mbpd.

The oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06 per cent (year on year) in Q1 2020, indicating an increase of 6.51 per cent relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

However, growth decreased by –1.30 per cent when compared to Q4 2019 which was 6.36 per cent.

Quarter on quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 11.30 per cent in Q1 2020.

The oil sector contributed 9.50 per cent to aggregate real GDP in Q1 2020, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, as the share of the non-oil economy declined.

Commenting, Uche Uwaleke, a professor of capital market, said the drop in the country’s real GDP growth rate from 2.55 per cent in the 4th quarter of 2019 to 1.87 per cent in Q1 of 2020 was not a surprise.

He said the non-oil sectors that drove growth included the ICT, financial institutions and agriculture which experienced relatively less disruptions.

The sectors that recorded the highest drop, he noted, included road transport and accommodation/hotel industry due in part to the movement restrictions and lockdown in many towns and cities in Nigeria.

“As a matter of fact, the drop in real GDP growth rate would have been more severe but for the moderating impact of the relatively greater tempo of economic activities in the month of January,” Uwaleke said.